It was quite a homestand for the Minnesota Twins. After being left for dead following a brutal road trip, winning 9 out of 11 has revitalized their season. With the trade deadline fast approaching, decisions will have to be made. Are the Twins buyers, sellers, or holders? There are several layers to this, and all of them need to be considered.
It’s important to take stock of where we are. The Twins are 7.5 games behind the Indians, and the AL Central will be their only path to the playoffs. Can they the Twins make up this gap? Mathematically speaking it’s very plausible. Teams have closed 7.5 game gaps in a lot less than two months in the past.
First, we need to think about the Twins. The first half has been very disappointing. 44-50 is not what we were hoping for, but I think everyone can agree that better days are ahead. This is a team that has been without its two franchise players in Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton for basically the entire first half. We don’t know exactly when they will be back, but it’s fair to assume that it’s going to be sooner rather than later. We can also look forward to the return of Ervin Santana. Santana started for Rochester today and should return sometime shortly after the break. The return of those three, along with more positive regression should make the Twins a much-improved team in the second half. How much better? That’s another question. I figure that they need to win at least 87 games to have a chance. That means they would have to go at least 43-25 the rest of the way to catch Cleveland, and I think they are going to need more than 87.
Now we need to think about the Indians. Cleveland is a very good team, and they still haven’t played their best baseball yet. The bullpen has really held them back. You have to believe that’s going to improve in the second half, especially with the Indians looking to add via trade.
The Twins have one chance to compete, and that is by winning eight of the ten remaining games they have with Cleveland. Something like that may be enough to do the trick, but even that isn’t a guarantee.
As a fan, I hate to say this, but the conclusion is quite simple. The Twins need to trade the players who are in contract years. The stuff I talked about is highly unlikely, and even if it happened, it’s still far from a guarantee.
Expect the Twins to sell at the deadline this year, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be right back in contention a year from now.
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